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India's automobile industry finds itself in unwanted spotlight as thick smog hangs heavy over the skyline of North India. New Delhi recently achieved the dubious distinction of becoming the most polluted city in the world. But is the motor industry all to blame? Dr Ameya Joshi, who heads Emerging Technologies and Regulations for Corning Inc, one of world's leading innovators in material science talks about the politics of emissions and the way forward to Sumant Banerji of BT.

BT: Next year, India will leapfrog from BS IV to BS VI emission regime. How unprecedented is this?

AJ: India is in many ways taking what has already been learned from European regulations. It is a bit of a heads-up that we enjoy here. Even though it looks kind of abrupt, there is much more technical know-how behind it and a lot of thought put in by the government by looking into these regulations. It's a bold step forward because all these reductions in India for fighting pollution is critically needed right now.

BT: There has been a lot of talk on how to quantify emissions. Many countries talk of phasing out fossil fuels. Should India do the same?

AJ: There's growing emphasis on emissions globally. The emphasis is two-fold. One is reducing tailpipe emissions from vehicles. Second, is ensuring norms are met when they are driven on the road and not in some lab. There are differences in how diesel and gasoline are being phased in Europe versus China and India is following the European style.

BT: Would you say the dieselgate scandal of 2015 was the tipping point where the narrative on emissions changed?

AJ: Change was happening even before that but it provided that last ignition point for this. And this is definitely needed today. It acted as a catalyst so to say for the policymakers to work on quickly.

BT: Is industry even now on the back foot on emissions or is it more balanced now that it's been almost three to four years since the scandal broke out?

AJ: It's much more balanced now that there is a tremendous amount of progress that has been made by the industry in the past few years. Since dieselgate the industry realized that it must get this right and there is no escape now. Hence, a lot of work has been done and the industry has now moved from what needs to be met on emissions of the future to looking at what's even further into the future. Now the industry is making sure that it isn't going to exceed the norms and make sure cars are really clean. It's everyone's responsibility. Fuels to tailpipe emission to every engine, everything must come together. I am glad it's happening.

BT: There's a big question over the viability of diesel as a technology. What is your sense of what major OEMs are thinking worldwide?

AJ: Firstly, in the heavy-duty side, diesel engine has a long way to go. There is lot of conversion happening from diesel to gasoline and to compressed natural gas but still for most of the long-haul applications, diesels are here to stay for a few years. On the light duty side, clearly diesel has taken a hit. An image hit after the dieselgate and also a lot of political hit. Its' got an image that it's not clean. One thing to recognize is that from a CO2 perspective diesel engine offers a lower CO2 and the reduction (in CO2) as compared to gasoline increases as you go to heavier vehicles. Especially, if you are comparing an SUV in a diesel versus gasoline now, you do get a much bigger benefit. For countries like Europe which are mandating a 30 percent reduction in CO2 for the next level of fuel economy, OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) are going to really struggle to meet the CO2 targets. If overnight Europe goes to gasoline, it's going to be a big challenge. So diesel engine has a role to play in that transition.BT: But the scandal seems to have hit the nail in the coffin for diesel.

AJ: From an emission perspective, the timing of the whole dieselgate scandal was very unfortunate. It happened just when the regulations, the measurement techniques, the industry were in place, so diesel took a hit. But if you see today the RDE (real driving emissions) compliant diesels that are being certified are super clean in Europe. And by super clean, there is data to suggest diesel tailpipe emissions of 20 milligram per kilometer.  Which is to say if today diesel is at 80, potential Euro VII or Bharat stage VII could be roughly say 40. We are already talking 20 today, half of that, which shows it can be done with appropriate technology.  

BT: What about particulates which contributes so much to the smog that we suffer from in Delhi?

AJ: I just read a paper yesterday about fleet testing in Zurich where they have the histogram of particulate emissions from diesel. Roughly the average of diesels with good working filters was 10,000 particles per cubic centimeter. That is around 10 micrograms per meter cube if you do conversions, which is the World Health Organization recommended minimum for good health. Delhi is at 150 so.....long way to go. How much are these 10,000 particles per centimeter cube? This room is a good example. Let's say 10 feet by 10 feet. So, if this room is filled with diesel exhaust, the amount of soot would be equal to four eyelashes. That's 10 micrograms per meter cube. That's how clean diesel has become. In fact, studies today show a good vehicle with a properly working particulate filter can actually clean the environment. If the AQI in Delhi is at 160 micrograms per meter cube and you have tailpipe emission of 10 microgram per cube, the car is actually sucking up atmospheric particles and emitting relatively cleaner air. It's working like a filter. And this is real data. For both NOx and particulates, the technology is ready. It's mature. However, diesel has taken a hit in perception. And like it or not, it is declining.

BT: Policymakers across the world seem unconvinced especially when the claim is being made by the industry.

AJ: That's true, policymakers are being super vigilant and that's why all of this in-use compliance (RDE) testing is happening. There's a new sort of activity in Europe going on called periodic testing - roadside testing of vehicles. They are doing every bit to make sure that you really catch vehicles which are high emitters and fix them quickly. But to be fair if you read all the regulations written, they are, so far, not directly excluding diesels. They are just no longer lenient towards diesel vis a vis petrol. So if you have a vehicle that meets their limit they're saying you can drive it or now. They are phasing out older diesels and that's fair. For final regulatory level they're not still phasing out diesels. There are no blanket bans. Some cities occasionally make statements that we are not going to allow older diesels in the city center and the headlines are always very misleading. I think once you have these actual real world data with compliant diesels running on the road, in a year or two with the data at hand, I think the mindset may change. We will have to see.

BT: How do you look at what is happening in India where the government completely goes from one direction to the other?  The broader underlying emotion is to do away with tail pipe emissions entirely. Do you think that's a good strategy to have for a country like India?

AJ: India is not alone. Most governments are struggling with this problem. You want to reduce fuel consumption and reduce pollutants. They don't go hand in hand all the time. If you want to really reduce pollutants you make engine changes frequent and they have an impact on fuel economy or vice versa. Trying to clamp down on both and make 100 percent EV, obviously is not going to work in the short term. Just mandating that from tomorrow you can only drive EVs is not feasible anywhere either. Governments are still trying to figure out what is the right mix and it depends on the mix of technology they promote. It depends on the local availability. So, if a country is rich in CNG, it is going to promote CNG.

BT: What is that good policy for India?

AJ: A good policy has a mix of all of this for many reasons. As I said, all your diesels have a lower CO2 than gasoline so, having some amount of diesel is probably okay. It also depends on what you want to do with the vehicle for heavy loads. For city driving, hybrid is probably better and there are lot of studies now which show roughly average gasoline hybrid today gives a 30 percent benefit compared to conventional gasoline and that puts it at par roughly with diesel. So, give some incentive to vehicle buyers. Moving them to hybrid probably will require a smaller incentive away from diesel or gasoline. On the other hand  promoting EV technology is also good because by the time your grid gets really clean you want the technology to be mature. California is struggling with the same thing and trying to motivate it. It is the same thing in China. India is being aspirational and as we reduce dependence on coal, let's push EVs but in the meantime hybrid is a good technology to pursue because it gives you reductions today.